“I want the roots to grab hold. The case of Iraq is special, but I’m concerned. Is democracy really something we could expect?” School of Foreign Service Dean Robert Gallucci asked this question on Tuesday at a panel organized to discuss the political situation following Iraq’s recent elections.
On Jan. 30, 60 percent of eligible Iraqis voted in the historic elections that placed the Shiite Muslim sect in power. Sponsored by the SFS Center for Peace Studies and the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy (ISD), SFS faculty members Dr. Daniel Byman of the Security Studies Program, Director of Georgetown’s Arab Studies Program Michael Hudson, ISD Director of Research Thomas Melia, Major James Gavrillis of the United States Army Special Forces and Rick Olson of the U.S. Department of State each focused on an aspect of post-elections Iraq.
Gallucci opened the discussion by addressing the need to assess the U.S. presence in Iraq, which affects U.S. diplomacy with other Middle Eastern states daily.
“I don’t feel I have an understanding of the insurgency,” he said. “I am struck by my own ignorance. Consequently, I don’t have much confidence in propositions for democracy.”
Gallucci spearheaded the panel in order to explore possible answers to questions and doubts lingering in the minds of many in the wake of the elections. Melia responded to the Dean’s remarks with optimism for enduring democracy in Iraq. He said that the elections transpired in a lawful manner and were largely driven by the Iraqi people.
“A lot of Iraqis took part in a larger process that was actually fairly successful,” he said. He added that time would be the real test of the emergence of democracy and its sustainability in Iraq. “Iraq today is not a democracy, but it has the potential to become a democracy,” he concluded.
Insurgency remains a threat to the development and maintenance of democracy. Major Gavrillis discussed the insurgents in his portion of the analysis and spoke of the important influence of foreign “jihadists,” fundamentalist Muslims who assert they are waging a holy war to reclaim Muslim land and to extend the territorial and religious reach of Islam.
Byman echoed Gavrillis, discussing the popularity of the jihad cause among young Muslims in the transitioning nation.
“Jihad is cool in Iraq,” he said.
Byman outlined four alternative courses of action for U.S. foreign policy toward Iraq, considering the best to be the reduction and redistribution of U.S. troops to more efficiently address insurgent threats.
He explained that changing the way the U.S. military is organized and directed in Iraq would increase incentive for Iraqi forces to fight independently in zones previously guarded by external forces.
As the panel’s Department of State representative, Olson stated that the goal of the U.S. toward Iraq remains the same.
“We want Iraq at peace with itself and its neighbors, and we will work with whatever government emerges from this process,” he said.
