Conservative political pundit Michael Barone said that American voting trends are in flux, with voters shifting away from long-time partisan loyalties, last night in Old North. About 25 people gathered to listen to his analysis of the current political situation and the 2008 presidential election.
Barone is a coauthor of the Almanac of American Politics.
“We’ve been in a period of about 10 years of trench-warfare politics,” he said. “Voting preferences have remained stable, which is very unusual in American politics.”
Barone went on to say that this style of politics is now changing into a more “open field” style, where the voters are more prone to switch sides.
Barone also said that he does not think the Democrats’ success in the 2006 elections will carry over to 2008 because the presidential elections will be based more on issues than on partisanship.
“The 2006 campaign was conducted in an idea-free zone,” he said. “Voters in 2006 knew they would not get an entirely Democratic government.”
Barone ended the lecture with an analysis of some of the current presidential candidates, but he disappointed some listeners by failing to offer predictions about the primary elections.
“[Hillary Clinton] has been in the White House before, which is a special quality that other candidates do not have,” he said.
About former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani, Barone said: “We don’t have to ask how he’d handle a crisis. We know already.”
As for John McCain and Barack Obama, Barone offered little commentary, saying that the former is too old and the latter has too little experience.
Following the lecture, Barone took questions from the audience, most of which focused on primary season predictions.
“I was impressed that he knew intricate details on voting patterns,” Brennan Gumerove (COL `09) said. “However, there was really nothing new that he said. I was looking for a prediction and he did not give me a sense on who he thought would win.”
