Trojans, Gators, Buckeyes, and Bulldogs, fear not: Although your teams have already marred their records with the dreaded “one loss” that has plagued national championship hopefuls in recent years, your title hopes are still alive and kicking. Gone are the days when undefeated teams could be left out of the BCS title game, as was the case with Auburn in 2004. Not long ago, BCS detractors pointed out that the greatest flaw in the now ten-year-old system was its inability to accommodate more than two unbeaten teams. But after 11-2 LSU took home the trophy last year, more complicated problems have surfaced: what does the committee do when three teams, even four, are tied atop the rankings with one or two losses?
With so much football still to be played, these questions will remain unanswered for a couple more months, but that doesn’t mean it’s too early to size up the chances of this year’s early BCS contenders. Surprisingly, it is the Big 12, and not the SEC, that looks to be the toughest conference in Division I college football in 2008. There are currently five Big 12 teams with perfect records, but after Texas visits top-ranked Oklahoma and Missouri hosts Oklahoma State this weekend, that number will dwindle. In the end, it is likely that only one team—if any—will be able to escape unbeaten, and a potential Big 12 title game between Missouri and Oklahoma could decide who goes to Miami, the site of this year’s BCS National Championship. Don’t count out the Longhorns or in-state rival Texas Tech, though: both teams are currently ranked in the top ten and the Red Raiders boast the most dangerous aerial attack in the country.
The SEC, while not as dominant as it has been in recent years, will still be a battleground. A November 8 showdown between LSU and Alabama looms as the potential game-of-the-year in college football, but the Tigers will have to play former top-fives Georgia and Florida prior to hosting the second-ranked Crimson Tide. Alabama may have the best shot at winning from here, but even if they can overcome LSU in Baton Rouge, they will still have to beat someone—presumably Florida or Georgia—in the SEC title game.
That leaves Penn State and dark-horse BYU as the only other unbeatens currently ranked in the top ten. The Nittany Lions have looked stellar thus far, but we’ll know more about their chances three weeks from now, after they visit Wisconsin and Ohio State. The Cougars, on the other hand, have a much easier route. They’ll play fourth-ranked and undefeated Utah in the final game of the regular season, but even a victory in that match-up may not ensure them a shot at the national title. Already one one-loss team—USC—is ahead of them in the rankings, but who knows where they’ll be on October 19, when this year’s inaugural BCS poll is released.
Speaking of the Trojans, it looks as though they’ll have the best shot of anyone to play their way back into the BCS picture. The perennial Pac-10 favorites have no ranked teams left on their schedule, which bodes well for a squad that seems to play its best football late in the season. Georgia, Florida, and Ohio State will have much tougher roads, but that doesn’t mean that a shot at the national championship is impossible. It’s unfortunate that the system in place can’t accommodate every contender’s title hopes (playoffs, anybody?), but unlike in past years, that one loss may represent a renewed sense of urgency more than it does a scarlet letter of elimination.
Walker’s still a contender. Just ask him at wjl8@georgetown.edu.
