On Tuesday, the Big 12 Conference announced that it would not be accepting new members, ending an expansion search that began in July of this year. In total, the conference considered almost twenty schools, including Arkansas State, New Mexico, and UNLV, although it’s questionable how many of these teams had a chance. The Big 12 was judging candidates primarily on potential added revenue from the additions, which translates almost directly to the prestige of their football teams and possible expansion of Big 12 television viewership to new markets. The reported finalists were BYU, Houston, and Cincinnati. All three have pretty good football programs, fit in the conference’s general geographical footprint, and bring at least decent academics to the table.
BYU was likely eliminated from contention for its discriminatory policies towards LGBT students, many of which are detailed in this powerful article (warning: linked article mentions sexual assault and suicidal thoughts). While the Big 12 did not directly state that BYU was eliminated for this reason, the school’s policies are directly in contrast to the Conference’s basic standards of conduct for inclusion and basic rights for all students.
So, this left Houston and Cincinnati as possible candidates for expansion. It seemed perfect; Houston is slowly becoming a budding national football power, and adding the Cougars would make the largest metropolitan area in Texas a direct part of the Big 12, providing for enhanced TV viewership of the conference.
Frankly, the Big 12 is in a bit of a football crisis right now; since its switch from twelve to ten teams, it has slowly lost its standing as a premier football conference. Texas, one of the most well-known programs in the country, has finished a season ranked in the AP Top 25 only once since 2009. The only thing Kansas and Iowa State have been fighting for is second-to-last place in the conference. TCU was really good the past two years, but won only four games in 2013 and cooled off this year; their usual finish will probably end up being around 8-4 or 9-3. West Virginia, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State are just beating up on each other every season en route to 7-6 finishes for all. The only mildly consistent Big 12 teams over the past few years have been Baylor and Oklahoma, and Baylor will be hit with a Penn State (or worse – SMU)-esque punishment over its handling of multiple sexual assault allegations against football players. Basically, the Big 12’s only hope of winning its first national title since 2005 is Oklahoma, and they haven’t been at their best this season.
While many of the Big 12’s top teams seem to be on the decline, Houston is on the rise. Head coach Tom Herman led the Cougars to a 13-1 season and Peach Bowl victory over Florida State in 2015, and Houston finished the year at #8 in the AP Top 25. This year, the Cougars are 6-1, have already beaten Oklahoma, and have a huge matchup with Louisville coming up in mid-November. They just opened a brand-new football stadium in 2014 and seem to be legitimate college football competitors.
Why wouldn’t the Big 12 want to add Houston to its already potent arsenal of Texas teams? Basically, they’re scared that Houston is just too good at recruiting. Former Oklahoma Head Coach Barry Switzer claims that the addition of Houston to the Big 12 would make recruiting in Texas harder, since the Cougars would be able to steal recruits that’d no longer need to attend a different Big 12 school to play Power 5 Conference football close to home. But, according to 247Sports’ 2016 football class rankings, Houston would have been fourth in the Big 12’s recruiting rankings anyways, even though they’re currently in the American Athletic Conference, an admittedly smaller-name league than the Big 12.
One could make the argument that Cincinnati football wouldn’t be able to compete for Big 12 titles, and that’s probably true; but it wouldn’t be worse than Iowa State and Kansas and would most likely slot in as an average to below average team in the league. But, adding them would expand the conference’s media markets and recruiting footprint to the Mid-Atlantic and would make the “Big 12” actually have 12 teams, which is a pet peeve of mine (looking at you, Big 10, and shoutout to the Pac 12 for satisfying my OCD).
The Big 12 is missing on a glorious opportunity to add one of the most exciting and promising football programs in the country to its ranks, and I guess Cincinnati should join as well. Or, let’s just add fourteen schools to the conference (Despite the sarcasm, I’ll admit that promotion and relegation in American sports has always been an intriguing prospect for me). The Big 12 has the chance to make itself better by adding a real good program, but they seem to be scared of getting outmatched by an outsider. Houston is confident that it’ll have more chances to join power conferences, and when they do, the Big 12 will be pouting over a missed opportunity.
