I’ve had an epiphany after two and a half years at Georgetown: Kids love to gamble on sports. You may be saying “Thanks, Captain Obvious,” but the situation is becoming perilous, as nobody seems to be winning. I hear a lot of stories about kids losing $100 here, $250 there, so I’m pretty sure it’s not just my group of friends who are degenerates.
I, along with my roommate, have an incredible streak going. In two years, we have not won a single bet on an NFL game. That amounts to a significant amount of money lost, and while my roommate has learned the error of his ways and retired from betting on football, I’m not ready to give up. There has to be a way to win money. Through much research and the help of a friend who is the only kid on campus I know to bet and win, I bring you 10 helpful hints for betting on sports.
1. Never make friends with your bookie. Bookies are businessmen. They don’t want to take any risk. In an ideal situation for a bookie, 50 percent of the money is on one side, and 50 percent is on the other side. All they want is their 10 percent commission. They don’t care who wins the game.
2. Everything about teams’ individual players and teams’ overall quality are factored into the line. This means that if the line on a game is three points, the favored team will win the game by an average of three points. Hypothetically, if the game were played a hundred times, the average over those 100 games would be three points, (i.e. the spread). So in order to win, you need to bet based on intangible aspects that are not factored into the line.
3. Watch the way a line moves throughout the week. The line moves because the smart money is betting one side. For example, if the Rams are a 3-point favorite at one point, and later on in the week they are a 3 1/2-point favorite, bet the Rams. Even though you’re losing half a point, it’s a great bet, because people that are smarter than you are influencing the line.
4. Check out the weather before a game. Bad weather is great for betting the under. If it’s rainy and windy, teams can’t pass or kick and points will be scarce.
5. Never bet a football team that is a 5- , 5 1/2- , 12- or 12 1/2-point favorite. The reason for this is not clear, but statistics show that the underdog is much more likely to be a profitable bet in these situations.
6. Rest is very important to a team. Find an NBA team that’s played its last three games on the road on the opposite coast, and bet against them the next day.
7. If a line looks too good to be true, it is. If next weekend the Green Bay Packers were at home and 2-point favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals, you still shouldn’t bet the Packers. There is a reason the line is the way it is. You are not smarter than the entire sports betting industry.
8. Do not bet teasers, parlays or proposition bets with the intention of winning. They offer terrible odds and you will lose.
9. Every bet you make should always be the same amount. If you’re down $200 from two $100 losses, don’t bet $200 on a game to try and break even. Stay within your limitations. You are not going to win every bet you make. The idea is to shift percentages to win 60 percent of your bets and lose about 40 percent. If you do that, in the long run you will make money. If you vary the amount you bet, you introduce another factor into the equation, which can allow you to win 60 percent and lose 40 percent of your games and still lose money because of the varying amounts being wagered.
10. Don’t ask your friend for advice on his favorite team. For instance, my friend asked me what I thought about the Eagles being a 10 1/2-point favorite two weeks ago against the Indianapolis Colts at home. I’m a big-time Eagles fan (Donovan McNabb’s gutsiest performance ever last week), and obviously my opinion is going to be biased. Naturally, I told my friend, “The Eagles are going to crush the Colts, the Colts have lost four in a row, they’re starting an undrafted rookie running back, the Eagles have yet to give up a 100 yard rusher and the Eagles are the best team in football!”
Result: Colts 35, Eagles 13?the undrafted rookie running back ran for 114 yards and two touchdowns and my friend lost $50 and is now very bitter.
Finally, a last piece of advice: If you don’t have the money to lose, don’t bet on sports. Yeah, it makes the games more interesting. Yeah, sometimes you’ll win money and can reward yourself with a case of Yuengling. But instead of betting money you can’t afford to lose, bet $1 or $5 with a friend. That way you can cure your gambling itch and won’t have to find a second job to cover your gambling debt.
There was a 30-year-old man I worked with during high school. He was a real nice guy, didn’t make too much money, but loved to gamble. One Monday he walked in with $4,000 all profit from one weekend of betting football. $4,000 was four months salary for this guy. He was ecstatic: He bought me lunch and drinks. He felt like he was on top of the world. The next week he was down $14,000, couldn’t pay his rent, his wife left him, and one morning when I went down to the basement, I found him sleeping on a bunch of newspapers. The last thing I remember him saying before he disappeared was, “I thought he (his bookie) was my friend.”
