Following last night’s loss to Connecticut, Georgetown appears destined for the National Invitational Tournament. The four-game losing streak has been nothing short of a death sentence for the Hoyas, whose Ratings Percentage Index has slipped to 68, a far cry from the 36 of a mere two weeks ago. Even ESPN analyst Joe Lunardi, who correctly picked 64 out of 65 teams in last year’s field, has dropped the Hoyas in his index to 67, another far cry from the 24 spot he had them at just days ago.
There is a silver lining to this late-season collapse: there is a widespread Hoya love-in as the program seems to be headed back to prominence. The buzz surrounding the Hoyas right now seems reluctant to let the team fall out of the tournament after John Thompson III’s coaching job this season. Objectively, however, the numbers are not in the Hoyas favor.
Historically, the Big East is a powerhouse conference that routinely puts five teams in the NCAA Tournament. Last year, the Big East was represented by six teams. Since the 1995-1996 season, only 11 Big East teams have finished conference play with nine wins; two of those teams made the torunament. Over the same period, 23 teams have finished conference play with 10 wins and those teams made the NCAA Tournament 21 times. The Hoyas’ nine wins are not likely to hold up.
For starters, the Hoyas are 8th in the conference in terms of RPI, having fallen behind West Viriginia. That the Hoyas beat West Virginia is certainly in their favor, but it would be quite a feat for the Hoyas to get in. The last time the Big East put seven teams into the tournament was in 1991 when Malik Sealy led St. John’s to the Elite Eight, Terry Dehere did the same for Seton Hall and Dikembe Mutombo and Alonzo Mourning were still playing on the Hilltop. Barring an incredible run in the Big East Tournament, a run that would need to include a trip to the semi-finals at a minimum, the Hoyas will likely be invited to the NCAA’s Junior Prom, the NIT.
