“Islamist attacks destablize southern region.” “Road-side bomb leaves 20 dead.” “U.S. strike kills multiple civilians.”
Headlines like the ones above, often accompany lead stories in the New York Times, are beginning to lose their impact after so many repeats. Car-bombings, shootings and seemingly arbitrary reports of between 12 and 100 civilians casualties have run together over the last three years. I seldom even read the stories unless I hear someone mention them particularly in conversation. I am so accustomed to such headlines, in fact, that I didn’t notice the first time one was about Somalia, not Iraq. Whether Somalia continues to get the same sort of bloody headlines all depends on Somali prudence and the U.S. minding its own business.
For those still not in the know, as of late last year, Somalia’s internationally recognized but weak Transitional Federal Government was holed-up in the small city of Baidoa, having been run out of Mogadishu by the Council of Somali Islamic Courts. The CSIC attacked Baidoa in December and Christian Ethiopia, unhappy with the rise of Islamism and wielding one of the most powerful militaries in Africa, defended the Somali government and swiftly counter-attacked, seizing complete control of the country, including Mogadishu, in the name of the secular Somali government.
Undoubtedly, the Islamists were shocked and awed, but now their heads are clearing and they see that their situation looks an awful lot like Iraq. The CSIC brought relative peace and stability to the country for two years and, like in Iraq, the Islamists and their supporters have not disappeared under occupation. Nor have they been placated: Somalia’s main news website, Shabelle.net, reads like a laundry list of gun skirmishes and inter-clan battles. To round out the familiar picture, the U.S. has graciously stepped in and blown up several innocent Somalis in botched attacks on suspected al-Qaeda targets.
The difference between Iraq and Somalia, however, is the difference between Iraq in 2007 and in 2003. The milk was left out overnight, but it still can be saved if it gets cooled-down quickly enough.
The Ethiopians have controlled the country for little over a month, and their prime minister Meles Zenawi has already declared that he wants the Ethiopian troops out as soon as possible. Both the United Nations and the African Union have been petitioned to help form a peacekeeping force, though so far only Uganda has pledged 1,500 troops. These efforts are keeping cries of imperialism to a dull roar, but they will only get louder if the US continues to meddle in what is clearly not our fight.
What’s more important is that the Somali government remembers that it is standing on Ethiopian legs that want to walk out from under it when it really needs Somali ones, and lots of them. If Somalia is to be united, it means compromising with the Islamists and especially with the leaders of the main clans. Stunts like shutting down the Islamist radio stations (the Somali government fortunately reversed its decision in that case) are a good way to alienate that critical support.
The Somali government cannot deceive itself into thinking that it is legitimate just because Ethiopia handed it a country to run. Islamists and clan leaders must be allowed to participate in elections and must receive appointments if the country is ever to stabilize. Best-case scenario is the Islamists, the clans and the Somali government compromise on a moderate Islamic democracy. Worst-case is that the Somali government suppresses the Islamists and the Ethiopians are forced to continue occupation indefinitely to quell the resultant increase in violence.
The last and possible most critical factor for success is that the U.S. distances itself from the whole process and stops hunting al-Qaeda in the region with explosives. Every pie we stick our thumb into turns sour, so it is better not to do anything at all. Whatever the Somali government does, my advice to the US is the same I’d give to a clumsy child in an antique shop: just don’t touch anything!
