The Conference Championships are over and now only two teams are left standing: The Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks. Before the season, this was an extremely popular Super Bowl pick, as both teams seemed poised to go all the way in the ‘sophomore’ campaigns of each of their very talented quarterbacks. Both teams were packed with talent on both sides of the ball, and both made notable off-season additions at wide receiver, Wes Welker to the Broncos and Percy Harvin to the Seahawks, to give their talented signal callers more weapons. However, fantasy has now become reality as the Broncos and Seahawks will face each other for the rights to the Lombardi Trophy.
Recaps
Before comparing the two Super Bowl bound teams directly, it is useful to look at how they fared in their respective Conference Championships. The Broncos defeated Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in impressive fashion; a win that both helps solidify Peyton’s legacy and the legitimacy of the Broncos as a team. The Broncos defense was surprisingly good, even considering how depleted the Patriots receiving corps is. Peyton was just as spectacular as he had been all year, although an injury to Patriots’ cornerback Aquib Talib midway through the game made things even easier. However, the running game was relatively quiet, as the Broncos were content to let Peyton throw the ball, even when they were up late in the game needing to kill the clock. Overall, the Broncos maybe looked stronger than many thought they were, and they head into the Super Bowl with confidence and loads of talent.
The Seahawks had a much more difficult time than the Broncos against the feisty San Francisco 49ers. The Seahawks trailed or tied the 49ers up until taking their first lead early in the fourth quarter on a brilliant touchdown pass on a gutsy 4th down attempt. The Seahawks seemed poised to attempt a long field goal at first but instead kept the offense on the field and were rewarded for their bold decision. The Seahawks also had a stroke of back luck as electric wide receiver Percy Harvin, playing in just his second game all season, was hit hard several times and ultimately left the game with a concussion. The extra week off should help Harvin to get back for the big game, which would be key for the Seahawks who otherwise lack a real elite playmaking receiver. The Seahawks did struggle to contain the elusive Colin Kaepernick on the ground as he piled up 130 rushing yards on only 11 carries. Otherwise, the Seahawks were as advertised: an impressive defense with enough offense to finish the job.
Offenses
There are few offenses in history that can compare to the current Broncos offense, so it seems obvious that the Broncos have the offensive advantage in this game. The Broncos thrive with a slew of talented receivers, including tight end Julius Thomas, which puts pressure on defenses who have to decide who they want to try to shut down. Last week it appeared as though the Patriots were targeting Demarius Thomas, at least before Talib’s injury, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Seahawks try the same thing. However, the Broncos can force defense to pull so many men out of the box that their talented running backs can find lots of running room. Among the crazy season for the Broncos passing game, Knowshon Moreno quietly rushed for over 1000 yards on the season. Moreno, along with Montee Ball, can easily make defenses pay if they begin to drop too many men in coverage. The Broncos’ offensive line has also performed exceptionally well this season, as evidenced by the zero sacks and zero hits Peyton took last week against New England.
The Seahawks offense is still very impressive, but nowhere close to that of the Broncos. Russell Wilson is a talented and elusive quarterback, but he is still young and at times he struggles with accuracy on deep passes. However, his playmaking ability can give defenses fits; his ability to extend plays often can make up for any shortcomings of the offense as a whole. If Percy Harvin is fully healthy this offense might be far more dangerous, but we’ve seen so little of him this year it’s hard to predict exactly how much of an impact he will have. However, the passing game is really the icing on the beast-mode cake that is Marshawn Lynch. Lynch is the V8 engine that keeps the Seahawks offense driving. Lynch has upped his game even more in the playoffs, breaking 100 yards rushing in both playoff games so far and averaging 5 yards per carry.
Defenses
The Broncos’ depleted defense did a superb job containing the dangerous Tom Brady last week; however, they are the weak point of this Broncos team. If Percy Harvin plays, then the Broncos secondary will have a bigger challenge than they did last week against the subpar Patriots’ receivers, however, the most pressure will be on the defensive line and linebackers. The combination of Lynch and Wilson necessitates that the Broncos must have success in the trenches, by both providing pressure but also staying true to their assignments in an attempt to prevent Wilson from escaping and extending plays. The Broncos were able to do this last week, holding New England to only 64 total rushing yards, although the Patriots’ run game is not nearly as strong as that of the Seahawks.
If there ever was a defense to challenge the record breaking offense of the Broncos it is that of the Seahawks. The Seahawks defense seems nearly flawless, its biggest issue last week was containing Kaepernick’s rushing, something that will not be an issue with the mostly immobile Manning. The Seahawks will be challenged by the wide variety of weapons that the Broncos have, and while Richard Sherman is one of the best cornerbacks in the game, he is only one man. The entire Seahawks team will have to step up to cover all of Peyton’s weapons; simply shutting down one man will not be enough. However, unlike New England, Seattle has the potential to put heavy pressure on Manning and force him to make poor throws even if receivers are open. It definitely won’t be and easy game, but the Seattle defense is the strength of the team and it must perform up to its potential.
X-Factors
1) Location: The Seahawks have one of, if not the, best home field advantages in football. Thus, playing on a neutral site might hurt them more than the Broncos. Noise is a critical way to disrupt the rhythm of an offense like the Broncos, and a neutral field might be a factor tilting in favor of the Broncos. Also, the Seahawks did fare worse on the road this year than at home. Favor: Broncos
2) Weather: Despite what people seem to think, Peyton Manning is not a worse quarterback in the cold. ESPN likes to show graphics of 3 or 4 games in cold temperatures where he has performed poorly, however overall in his entire career Peyton does not perform any different in colder temperatures. However, if there is some sort of precipitation or heavy wind, that is something that would could make it much more difficult to throw the ball. It is hard to predict how the weather will affect the game so far in advance, but it seems like it is more likely to favor the run-happy Seahawks. Favor: Seahawks
3) Crossing Routes: Last week, Wes Welker forced Aquib Talib out of the game after colliding with him over the middle on a designed crossing route with Demaryius Thomas. Criticize the hit all you want, but the play was not flagged and upon further review the league confirmed the play was legal. It would be extremely foolish for the Broncos to not try a series of crossing routes again in hopes of disrupting the Seahawks’ secondary. Of course the intent should not be to injure another player, but if Sherman gets legally hit a few times over the middle perhaps he will think a little bit more about running full speed across the middle potentially giving Thomas an advantage late in the game. Favor: Broncos
4) Percy Harvin: If healthy Harvin is one of the most electric players in the league, from deep passes to handoffs the Seahawks need to get him the ball if he can play at 100%. As previously mentioned, Harvin has seen so little time this year it’s hard to know exactly how well he can move following his hip surgery in the offseason, but the glimpses we’ve seen so far this year have seemed to indicate that he is going to be just fine. Harvin adds an element of elusiveness and speed that Lynch doesn’t have. The contrast between Lynch’s powerful running and the quickness of Harvin could wreak havoc on the Broncos defense; look for a lot of missed or broken tackles if Harvin can complement Lynch’s power. Favor: Seahawks
Bonus Bold Predictions
1) Eric Decker leads the Broncos in receiving yards and Knowshon Moreno has more rushing yards than Demaryius Thomas has receiving yards (See: Sherman, Richard).
2) Peyton Manning throws more interceptions than Russell Wilson.
3) Wes Welker makes a clutch Santonio Holmes or David Tyree type catch to redeem himself for his drop against the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI.
4) Marshawn Lynch does not rush for over 100 yards
5) Peyton Manning has positive rushing yardage (has not happened once yet this year).
6) Commissioner Goodell goes back on his word and watches a majority of the game inside a box of some sort rather than outside in the elements.
Conclusion
In a dream scenario pitting the best defense versus the best offense, this game might have implications for how teams build in the coming years. If Seattle prevails look for teams to perhaps refocus on defense in the coming years. However, if Denver wins teams might continue to ramp up their offensive output. The best of each of these teams get to square off against each other in a game that will hopefully come down to the very end. Overall, I have to pick the Broncos, I have more confidence in the veteran Manning to get the job done in the clutch than I do in Wilson. Wilson will return to the Super Bowl one day, but this year belongs to Peyton Manning. The Broncos defense also is confident coming off a victory against Tom Brady and will do enough to allow the game to be decided by the arm of Peyton and the leg of Matt Prater. Broncos 27 Seahawks 24
