The 2017-2018 College Basketball season has treated us with a dazzling display of freshman phenoms. While the national player of the year award appears to be firmly in the grasp of first-year guard Trae Young thanks to his Curryesque style of play, a two-horse race has broken out for the best big man in the country between Duke’s Marvin Bagley and Arizona’s Deandre Ayton. Both players have shown enough brilliance to be considered as consensus top-5 picks in June’s NBA Draft, where their relative placement will be a source of endless debate among NBA scouts and pundits. But right now, is it possible to determine which star forward has the upper hand in the professional game?
By the Numbers
While Bagley and Ayton’s offensive contributions are similar, Bagley has produced slightly more. Per 40 minutes, Bagley averages 28.2 points and 14.6 rebounds, while Ayton averages 25.2 points and 14.6. Bagley boasts an absurd 129.3 offensive rating while Ayton, not to be outdone, has an offensive rating of 132. Both Bagley and Ayton have also proven capable of stepping away from the basket to knock down shots, as they have shot 34.8 percent and 33.3 percent from behind the arc, respectively. Ayton appears to have slightly better touch than Bagley, as the Arizona big man shoots 73 percent from the free throw line to Bagley’s 62 percent. Overall, Bagley and Ayton are close to dead-even when comparing their offensive output and efficiency.
Measurables and Position
Despite Bagley and Ayton’s impressive stats so far, college numbers alone cannot tell us what we need to know with regards to NBA performance. If that were the case, Tyler Hansbrough would have been one of the most prolific NBA scorers of all-time and DeAndre Jordan would have languished on the bench. Measurables and position are two key elements of predicting a prospect’s future success at the professional level. Marvin Bagley sports a wiry frame: at 6-11 and 234 pounds, Bagley has the agility to move all over the court, as well as the size, length, and springs to snatch rebounds and score over defenders. In the NBA, Bagley would be a natural 4-man, but will likely see playing time at small forward, even bringing the ball up the floor, in an era of increasingly positionless basketball. Ayton, on the other hand, is a chiseled 7-1, 250 pound prospect who is much more comfortable playing off the ball than with the ball in his hands. The Arizona Wildcat doesn’t have the same handle as Bagley, but he does have an NBA-ready body that is suited to last the physical challenge of playing on the interior.
Player Comparisons
Marvin Bagley: a more explosive, skilled Chris Bosh
Like the former Toronto Raptor and Miami Heat star, Marvin Bagley is a lefty who can operate right near the basket or outside the paint, and has earned the reputation as a hellacious rebounder. Unlike Bosh, however, Bagley has the ability to create for himself off the dribble and is more than comfortable with the ball in his hands 20 feet from the basket. Bagley will need to work more on his touch to get his shooting prowess up to that of Bosh, but the Duke phenom has all the potential in the world to surpass the likely future hall-of-famer.
DeAndre Ayton: a taller Karl Malone
It is difficult to come up with a useful comparison for Ayton, as there have not been any 7-1 players in NBA history who boast the same offensive arsenal. Karl Malone was 6-9, but possessed many of the same skills that Ayton has put on display so far. Like Malone, Ayton has the ability to pop out and hit shots, move nimbly and run the floor, as well as show a high basketball IQ while on the court. Ayton faces big question marks with regard to his future as a rim-protector, as scouts have noted his room for improvement on defense, while Malone earned a reputation as a lockdown one-on-one defender. Fortunately, Ayton has time to improve his defensive acumen as well as fit into specific NBA defensive schemes: a feat that is difficult to achieve during just four months of college basketball.
Who would I draft first?
While I do not think there is a definitive answer on who to build a franchise around, I would tentatively give the edge to Bagley. While Ayton is a physical powerhouse, Bagley accomplishes much of the same on the offensive and defensive end while showing more versatility in switching positions and bringing the ball up the floor. As the NBA increasingly values skills over “fit” into any particular system, Bagley has come at the perfect time to hear his name get called early on draft night. While Bagley’s shaky showing at the foul line is a cause of some concern, we cannot ignore his jaw-dropping athleticism coupled with his astonishing skill for his size. Furthermore, there is no indication that the Duke star will stop getting better, so we should expect his weaknesses to be minimized as he enters a full-time NBA conditioning program. Ayton will make whichever team that drafts him very happy, but I believe Bagley has the tools to shine (slightly) brighter at the next level.
Image: Arizona Sports Information
