The world of Formula 1 has become unpredictable, a contrast from the dominance that Max Verstappen and Red Bull Racing showcased in the 2022 and 2023 seasons. In 2024, the fans enjoyed a revitalized F1 season as McLaren’s Lando Norris challenged Verstappen for the title. Despite the 63-point gap between the two, Norris began an impressive string of podiums and victories at the Miami Grand Prix, while Verstappen endured a ten-race dry spell until an unexpected victory at the Brazilian Grand Prix. This tumultuous end to a season has set the stage for 2025 as fans wonder how driver dynamics will evolve, how the six rookies will perform, and which teams will shine in the new season.
Red Bull’s Cursed Second Seat and a Premature Lawson Promotion
Red Bull has struggled to find a reliable second driver to complement Verstappen, from Pierre Gasly in 2019, who lasted only 12 races, to his replacement Alex Albon, who lasted a season and a half. As of 2021, Sergio Perez brought Red Bull results and consistency—and even aided Verstappen in winning his first World Championship—but his 2024 season consisted of many races with zero and single-digit points, along with an eighth-place finish in the Drivers’ Championship that led to his dismissal by the team.
Red Bull is putting its faith in F1 rookie Liam Lawson, who steps up after starting 11 races across two seasons for Red Bull’s sister team in F1, Racing Bulls. This move seems risky and premature, especially as Red Bull is the third-best team on the grid and holds the previous Drivers’ Champion. Both Gasly and Albon faced challenges after limited experience, and even Perez eventually failed to perform despite having 10 years of F1 experience. What makes Lawson different from Gasly and Albon? Why should he perform when the others could not?
Lawson has been given the toughest task in recent F1 history with Max Verstappen as a teammate. The team needs a driver who can maintain competitiveness, deliver points, and support Verstappen in his fight for the Drivers’ Championship. However, Lawson expressed he is looking to beat Verstappen and not be a second driver, which raises concerns about team dynamics. His poor qualifying record against Yuki Tsunoda raises the question of whether he can even beat Verstappen. Lawson’s aggressive racing style, which resulted in a feud with Fernando Alonso and aggressive defending against Perez, could indicate future poor behavior with Verstappen or other drivers.
Lawson can deliver acceptable results both as a rookie and in comparison to Verstappen’s performance. Lawson supposedly has a similar racing style to Verstappen, which will allow him to better adapt to Red Bull’s car, which tends to better suit Verstappen, and has two half-seasons of racing to his advantage. Lawson’s aggression and eagerness will also help him deliver results, maybe even a podium result during a chaotic race. The question is whether or not Lawson’s performance will sufficiently meet Red Bull’s expectations, allowing him to keep his seat. He must not forget why Red Bull brought him in: to be a selfless second-seat driver who will support Verstappen in his fight for the championship and Red Bull in securing points.
Aston Martin flops despite Newey’s arrival
After an exceptional performance in 2023 with eight podiums, 280 points, and fifth place in the Constructors’ Championship, Aston Martin declined in 2024, failing to secure a single podium with a slow-performing car.
Adrian Newey, former Chief Technology Officer of Red Bull Racing, joins Aston Martin in hopes of bringing more success to the British team. Despite Newey’s incredible achievements at Red Bull, including seven F1 Drivers’ titles, six Constructors’ Championship titles, 118 wins, and 101 poles, results will not happen instantaneously. Newey will need time to adapt to the sports’ constant changes since his departure in April last year and Aston Martin’s operations, especially after his 18 years at Red Bull. Joining on March 1 means Newey will miss pre-season testing and only has 12 days to prepare for the season opener in Australia. Furthermore, Newey stated that he is more focused on the 2026 season and its new regulations, which could divert attention and resources from immediate performance improvements.
Aston Martin’s overreliance on, over-optimism, and high expectations with Newey might lead to pressure and disappointment if the Newey magic fails and results do not materialize. Formula 1 is not a one-man show despite Newey’s past success with Red Bull, and Aston Martin must have patience before expecting results until at least the late 2025 or 2026 season.
Six Rookies
One of the more exciting and unpredictable changes to the 2025 season is the introduction of six rookies, the most since 2001, which featured seven. Two of them, Liam Lawson and Kimi Antonelli, have even taken roles in top teams such as Red Bull and Mercedes. Comparing rookies is challenging due to differing car performances, from championship-contending vehicles to those at the back of the grid. My predictions will factor in driver performance relative to their teammate and the competitiveness of their car.
“Wonderkid” Kimi Antonelli is tasked with filling the shoes of seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes as he moves to Ferrari. He must deal with the high pressure at Mercedes, competing with teammate George Russell, and expectations due to his reputation for having a strong raw pace. However, his F2 season yielded an unexpected 6th place, which could be credited to a lack of race pace control. I think Antonelli will need a season or two to adapt to Mercedes and F1 and will likely disappoint this season with several DNFs.
I have more hope for Oliver Bearman, reserve driver for Ferrari and Haas in 2024 and current Haas F1 driver, despite his 12th-place finish in F2. Bearman impressed in his F1 debut last season, replacing Carlos Sainz in Ferrari and finishing seventh, a great indicator of his potential in the sport. However, he will drive in a typically underperforming Haas and may struggle to earn points, most likely falling to the back of the grid. As backmarker team drivers are compared more to their teammate than to other drivers, considering the lower-end car they drive, Bearman must be competitive against his teammate Esteban Ocon. Beating his experienced teammate can prove to Ferrari that Bearman deserves the seat once Hamilton retires.
Gabriel Bortoleto earned his spot in F1 after winning F3 in 2023 and F2 in 2024. Fernando Alonso even claimed that Bortoleto is the best rookie on the grid. Bortoleto faces similar challenges to Bearman, fighting at the back of the grid in a Kick Sauber that placed tenth last year. Bortoleto will be compared to his experienced teammate, Nico Hulkenberg, but I believe Bortoleto can prove himself by competing with Hulkenberg and fighting with midfield teams despite driving an uncompetitive car.
Jack Doohan, Alpine’s new and former reserve driver, is the rookie with the lowest expectations. He must prove to his team that he was the right driver choice over Franco Colapinto, Alpine’s now reserve driver. Doohan has shown steady performance compared to the other rookies, finishing 6th in F2 in 2022 and 3rd in F2 in 2023. However, he must now compete against the experienced and consistent Pierre Gasly to maintain his race seat over Colapinto. I think Doohan will put in fine results but not impress, which could lead to a race seat change for the 2026 season.
Isack Hadjar stands out among the rookies, as he displayed strong potential in F2 last season with a second-place finish and four wins compared to Bortoleto’s two. Hadjar will face Yuki Tsunoda, a fierce but immature driver, at Racing Bulls, and I believe Hadjar can beat Tsunoda by mid-season. If Lawson flops and Hadjar outperforms Tsunoda, he may position himself as a suitable replacement for Lawson.
Despite being the most experienced rookie, I do not think Lawson will perform the best. Lawson will be too aggressive and compete with Verstappen, rather than support him, which might cost him racing errors. There is a chance Lawson does not last the entire season because of underperformance, especially compared to Verstappen, which could lead Tsunoda or Hadjar to replace him as Red Bull’s second-seat driver.
To sum up my rookie prediction with a simple ranking:
- Hadjar (Underhyped and great F2 record)
- Bortoleto (Listening to Alonso’s claims of best rookie, and he has the best F2 record.)
- Bearman (Consistent, mature, and clean)
- Doohan (Cards stacked against him, but he might not be a complete flop)
- Lawson (Flop and possible mid-season driver switch considering Red Bull’s tough racing environment)
- Antonelli (While tremendous hype surrounds him, I think he will perform poorly this season but prove himself in future seasons.)
Williams leads the Midfield Teams
The midfield teams of last season—Aston Martin, Alpine, Haas, and Racing Bulls—did not include Williams Racing, which finished ninth and 29 points behind Racing Bulls. However, Williams showed promise with Albon and Colapinto, consistently placing around 12th place, just shy of points. I think Williams will continue its momentum but be able to score the points it lacked last season.
Williams’ driver lineup consists of Alex Albon, who has proved he can fight for points in the lower-budget car, and Carlos Sainz, one of the more talented drivers on the grid who performed consistently for Ferrari despite being replaced by Lewis Hamilton. I believe the strong duo can help Williams challenge the midfield teams, deliver the points Williams needs to get the team out of its rut, and even secure a podium this season, possibly during a chaotic race.
Williams can capitalize on and benefit from other teams’ downfalls. I believe Aston Martin will continue its poor performance from the end of last season, scoring eight points in the last six races, and Haas will drop to the back of the grid again as the team placed tenth in 2023. I expect Racing Bulls to also improve from last year’s eighth-place finish and Alpine—mainly thanks to Gasly rather than Doohan—to contend with Williams for the top of the midfield teams.
Lando Norris leads McLaren to a Constructors’ title and wins the Drivers’ Championship.
This past season, McLaren made significant improvements to its car and managed to beat Red Bull at the Constructors’ title. With the strongest car on the grid as of last season and the most solid driver pair, it’s McLaren’s championship to lose. Unlike other teams focusing on the new regulations coming in 2026, McLaren is developing its car for this season, hoping to solidify a second Constructors’ title. However, a challenge that McLaren will face and must overcome is managing its two championship-contending drivers to prevent them from fighting on track and to ensure civil racing between them.
As a die-hard Verstappen fan, this is difficult to say, but I believe Lando Norris will become World Champion this year. Norris’s strong momentum during the second half of the 2024 season, developed maturity from his growing experience, and more consistent racing in the front this past season will likely prove challenging for Verstappen in the fight for the Championship. Norris has newfound confidence and has learned from difficult mistakes, which led to Verstappen’s success last season.
Verstappen struggled with the RB20 last season, issues that most likely stemmed from Red Bull technicians’ lack of experience and a parting with Newey, which might continue impacting Verstappen’s chances at a five-peat. Verstappen must also now navigate the pressures and distractions of fatherhood, which might impact how he approaches his driving this season. Verstappen already believes that there is more to life than racing, as he prioritizes spending time with his family and has expressed a desire to potentially retire from F1 after his contract expires in 2028. On the other hand, Norris is hungrier than ever for a Championship, allowing him to rise to the top of F1.
This rivalry between Norris and Verstappen can mirror the 2021 season’s intense battle between Hamilton and Verstappen, which involved a last-lap fight for the World Championship, as well as numerous controversial crashes and disagreements. As seen in 2024, the supposed best friends, Norris and Verstappen, had their own on-and off-track disagreements, so will a similar situation play out or another last-lap World Championship decider? Only time will tell.
